The polls are closed and it wasn’t the carnage some were expecting it to be. True, it is quite disturbing to wake up to the sound of mortars on elections day. But that’s not surprising, this is Baghdad after all. Bottom line, Iraq has voted for the second full-term parliament since 2003 despite the threats, the intimidations, the chaos, the interference, and the “de-baathification” saga by the “not so” independent commission for justice and accountability.
Now another saga starts: who has won? The answer will shed light on the more crucial question: how much has the Iraqi society evolved since 2005 national elections and has apathy towards violence and sectarianism resulted in a shift in attitudes compared to five years ago. The picture might be blurred by the fact that there were two major Shiite blocks instead of one competing for the majority Shiite vote, and that many of the old faces in the outgoing parliament are running again making it tricky for voters to fully benefit of the “open list” system where they get the chance to vote for a candidate not his party.
Just judging by the attitudes of my two drivers, one a Shiite from Basrah and the other a Sunni from Anbar, anecdotal evidence suggests that former PM Iyad Allawi looks set to make a come-back as a major player. Previously, one voted for a Shiite block and the other for Sunni candidates. Today, both say they are “tired and need some peace” and that Allawi is the answer “because he’s not sectarian”. Allawi is a secular Shiite whose cross-confessional and cross-regional politics seem to make him a favorite of major constituents of the Iraqi society. Whether he will be the next PM is the $10 million question at this stage. The contest is fierce especially from incumbent PM Nouri al-Maliki.
A curious occurrence on election day is Hussein al-Shahristani’s announcement that a deal with CNOOC for the development of the Missan fields based on the company’s acceptance of terms offered in the first bid round last June has been initialed and is awaiting ratification of the cabinet. That’s like scoring a goal after the final whistle. What’s the point, I wonder…
Iraq election:
Iraqis want and deserve control over their own future, and are very proud of the bravery to bear all what has happened and the violence and were still able to vote for the second time. We have paid a heavy price for our growing young democracy. Freedom is going to be established, and the people will unite and not be separated by ethnicity or religion. It will not be an easy task. The political dynamics is a full time job and not just for the elected representatives but to the people as whole. The anticipation is that a new government will strengthen the rule of law and democratic institutions while providing new opportunities to resolve the country’s long standing problems.
Missan complex oil fields:
I had the honor to attend the first bid round in June, 2009. The Ministry of Oil was clear it has asked all the unsuccessful bidders to revisit their bids and to meet the realistic terms of the Ministry.
As a recap the CNOOC/Sinochem alliance made an unsuccessful bid for the complex in the country’s first licensing round. The two Chinese state-run companies initially offered to receive a remuneration fee of $21.40 for each extra barrel of oil produced and suggested raising production from the Fakka, Buzurgan and Abu Ghirab fields to 450,000 barrels a day, they would have to pay a recoverable signature bonus of $300 million, as per ministry’s tender protocol. But since then they had decided to accept the Ministry’s proposed remuneration fee of $2.30 (wisdom after the event). And as per the constitution the current Iraqi government is still functional. The score is in the extra time and the match is still on!