14 March 2003
A group of Iraqi exiles opposed to Saddam Hussein is gearing up to present itself as an alternative to opposition groups like the Iraqi National Congress that, having worked closely with Washington for years, are now regarded as US sell-outs by most Iraqis. The group, led by former foreign minister Adnan Pachachi, rejects a US military administration and is against any foreign interference in managing the oil sector. It says it would only cooperate with the UN in deciding Iraq’s fate if and when Saddam is toppled.
The group embraces ex-ministers and diplomats, including former oil minister Issam Chalabi, as well as businessmen and intellectuals who oppose US interference in Iraqi affairs. Last month, it emerged to call for the removal of the current regime and the establishment of a government from a constituent assembly that will introduce a new constitution and supervise new elections.
With the US still drawing up its own plans for a post-war Iraq, special envoy Zalmay Khalilzad has been trying to ascertain whether men like Pachachi would be willing to play a role. Khalilzad met with Pachachi in Abu Dhabi last month, just as the opposition movements who had been coordinating with the US were preparing to gather in an autonomous area of Iraqi Kurdistan. Pachachi subsequently declined their invitation to participate in planning a government in exile.
To many Iraqis, the 80-year old Pachachi is an acceptable alternative to a government parachuted in from outside or a US occupation force. He is a Sunni Muslim, like Iraq’s presidents before Saddam. He served as foreign minister and then ambassador to the UN from 1959-69, when he left Iraq after the Baath Party came to power. He settled in the UAE, where he served for 20 years on its executive council as a minister and close adviser to UAE President Sheikh Zayed.
But Pachachi would only join a new government on certain conditions. He says the UN should choose an interim government after consulting representatives from all Iraqi political movements and persuasions, and the US military’s role should be confined to securing the borders with Iran and Turkey, to preserve Iraq’s unity and territorial integrity, and continue seeking out weapons of mass destruction, and then only for a limited period. Interviewed in Abu Dhabi, he said he believes the UN and Iraqi army should be responsible for governing Iraq and for maintaining law and order. Even if these conditions were met, he said he would only join if asked by the Iraqis and the UN, not the US.
Pachachi also said he would prefer a collective leadership rather than one president. “We wouldn’t want to find ourselves again in the presence of a leader who makes mistakes and refuses to cede power,” he said. Many Iraqis now openly blame Saddam, who was officially elected president in 1979, for the devastating wars against Iran and Kuwait.
When it comes to Iraq’s oil — which many Arabs view as the main object of a US war — Pachachi and other oil experts in his group reject American involvement in running the sector, the country’s chief source of revenue. These include former oil minister Chalabi, who believes that “the slightest interference in Iraqi oil management will prove to the world that one of the main targets of the US administration is to control Iraq’s oil.
Chalabi spent more than 20 years in the Iraqi oil industry, some as president of Iraq National Oil Co. and some as oil minister from 1987-91. He believes Iraqi professionals are capable of running the industry without outside help, except for technical support and equipment. But he warned that foreign companies would, on legal grounds, be unwilling to sign deals with a US military overseer.
Chalabi believes that essential decisions on foreign investment in the industry should be postponed until a permanent government is elected, but production-sharing contracts (PSCs) should be reinstated. These were replaced in 2000 with a new contract model similar to Iranian buyback deals. China National Petroleum Corp. is now the only company with such a deal.
Interviewed in Amman, Chalabi said Iraq will need PSCs to hike production to levels commensurate with its reserves. “This principle was adopted in 1990 when even Saddam Hussein was convinced that this is the only way to develop Iraq’s resources to their optimum level.” Many Iraqi nationalists may disagree, just as in neighboring Kuwait, where parliamentary opposition continues to delay an upstream opening to foreign oil investment. Chalabi seems unperturbed. “Opposition of this kind is normal, especially if the aim is to introduce a new transparent legal process that replaces the current presidential decrees, which award contracts as political favors. Those who will define the overall oil policy and run Iraq’s oil sector should argue the case and convince the opposition.”
Chalabi believes the six existing development or exploration contracts should be reviewed on a case-by-case basis to ensure they don’t harm Iraq’s political and economic interests. He suggested that some might be modified, perhaps by broadening participation, particularly for big fields such as West Qurna, Nahr bin Umar, Majnoon, Halfaya, and Nasiriyah. But he advocates the cancellation of any deemed to have been awarded solely on political grounds.
By Ruba Husari, Amman
(Published in Energy Compass March 14, 2003)