31 May 2006
Barely a week after Iraq’s cabinet was sworn in, Iraqi Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki and Oil Minister Hussein al-Shahristani are facing the threat of a major disruption to Iraq’s oil output and exports, amid a Shiite power struggle in the southern province of Basrah.
Al-Maliki today plans to make his first trip to Basrah as prime minister, in an attempt to stop turf wars among Shiite Islamist parties from turning the region into a battleground. The region accounts for all of Iraq’s current oil exports of around 1.5 million barrels per day.
The prime minister’s delegation will include representatives of the major Shiite blocs that form the United Iraqi Alliance, which has a majority of ministry posts in the new cabinet and is the largest group in the National Assembly.
However, analysts say al-Maliki holds little influence with the religious Fadhila Party, which has 15 seats in the assembly but declined to join the government when it failed to secure the oil portfolio. That party is now holding the government to ransom in Basrah, where it controls the governor’s office and parts of the local oil industry, Iraq’s cash lifeline, analysts say.
Last week, Fadhila threatened to call a partial oil industry strike to halt exports through the Basrah and Khor al-Amaya oil terminals if Baghdad refused to make concessions. At face value, Fadhila’s demands concerned only local appointments, including within the police force — but they implicitly meant leaving control of the south in the hands of that party, analysts said.
“There’s no way we can leave Basrah, the gateway to Iraq, our imports and exports, at the mercy of criminal, terrorist gangs. We will use force against these gangs,” al-Maliki told Reuters Tuesday in Baghdad.
“We must restore security in Basrah and if anyone defies peaceful solutions, then force will be the solution,” he added.
Al-Maliki’s move followed a call Saturday by Iraqi President Jalal Talabani to dispatch a senior delegation to Basrah, which he said should have wide-ranging powers. “Whoever goes to Basrah should be authorized to dismiss and appoint” officials and to take other necessary measures, Talabani said in a statement.
Basrah has been rife with security problems over the past year or so, but Fadhila then controlled the oil ministry as well. Having lost that ministry, the party is now trying to protect its power base in Basrah, analysts say. Last week’s veiled threat to oil production and exports was seen as a warning that Baghdad should leave the south alone — a position that’s unacceptable to the central government.
Militias and mafia-like groups from the major Shiite parties have been fighting for influence in the south, outside the control of the central government. Corruption and arbitrary killings are said to be widespread. And disputes over authority have pitted the governor, Fadhila’s Mohammed al-Waeli, the police chief, senior clerics and other Shiite figures against each other — with an underlying goal being control of the rich oil province.
The main factions involved in the power struggle are the armed Badr organization, Fadhila and the movement of radical cleric Moqtada al-Sadr.
Noting an open conflict between such groups, al-Maliki told Reuters in the interview: “We cannot blame whatever is happening on terrorists. There is a tribal dimension and also there are the armed organized criminal gangs who are kidnapping and killing people, and these are the most dangerous element in the crisis. There are infiltrators who mean to complicate the situation in Basrah because Basrah is Iraq’s oil artery.”
The faltering of Baghdad’s control over the south came to represent the weakness of the former government of Ibrahim al-Jaafari. During his one-year term, al-Jaafari made one visit to Basrah, met with oil officials and pledged to address the obstacles faced by South Oil Co. (SOC) in raising production — but failed to follow up on these promises, according to an SOC official.
Neighboring Iran, which shares the Shatt Al-Arab waterway with Iraq, has also turned Basrah into a battleground for regional power, including with British forces positioned there.
The situation in Basrah presents a direct challenge to al-Shahristani as he tries to establish control over the oil ministry and sideline Fadhila appointees. When he took over the embattled oil sector 10 days ago, al-Shahristani pledged to fight the corruption that has plagued the ministry and its affiliates, and to bring crude oil output back to at least prewar capacity.
The threats from Basrah concerning a possible halt to Iraq’s oil exports are likely intended as a message to the oil minister, observers said.
Ministry sources told International Oil Daily this week that al-Shahristani is still trying to decide how to proceed, and is consulting industry experts within and outside the ministry. One idea emerging from these initial discussions involves the establishment of an advisory board of Iraqi oil experts to advise on running the sector.
By Ruba Husari, Dubai
(Published in International Oil Daily May 31, 2006)