Iraq: The Shiite View

25 July 2008

Iraqi Shiite Vice President Adel Abdul Mehdi does not disguise his and his party’s ambitions in establishing a semiautonomous region in southern Iraq, home to the country’s most abundant and biggest oil fields, in parallel to the Kurdistan region in northern Iraq, despite Sunni objections and warnings that the move would practically divide Iraq into three mini-states, with the southern region backed by influential Shiite neighbor Iran.

“I strongly believe that a strong region in the south will play a unifying factor for Iraq, not a divisive one, because unity in a federal system can only be achieved between strong constituents, not weak ones,” Abdul Mehdi, one of Iraq’s two vice presidents — Sunni Tarek al-Hashemi is the other — told Energy Compass in Baghdad last week.
The establishment of a semi-independent region in southern Iraq has been championed by the Supreme Islamic Council of Iraq (SICI), Abdul Mehdi’s party, since the US-led invasion that ousted the Baath regime of Saddam Hussein. The issue has been at the top of the electoral agenda of SICI in past elections and is expected to come back again in force in the upcoming provincial elections, initially scheduled for October. The Shiites base their claim on the Iraqi constitution of 2005, which declared Iraq a federal state.

“We have to decide on the future of the federal system before the end of 2009, and my understanding is that there is more acceptance of the principle today among Sunnis in western Iraq than in the past. In other regions, there are differences over the modalities, as some would like one strong region in the south while others prefer that each governorate gets its own region or that each [of the] three governorates get together into one region. There is a sort of agreement that Baghdad remains independent as one region, but we need to look into the Kirkuk issue based on the final settlement yet to be agreed,” Abdul Mehdi said.

The Shiite leader, who came back from exile in 2003, admits that the great Shiite project will not become a reality unless there is consensus between Shiites, Sunnis and Kurds, as well as acceptance both regionally and internationally.

Analysts say the dispute between the central government and the Kurds over the unilateral signing of production sharing agreements with foreign oil companies without oversight from the authorities in Baghdad raises questions about the fate of Iraq’s oil industry if that experience is repeated in other regions. However, Abdul Mehdi says the Kurds’ interest lies with the federal government, since it bankrolls their coffers.

“The Kurds’ interest is to be part of the national establishment, which guarantees them billions of dollars through their share of state revenues. The oil contracts signed should become part of the national oil plan in order for them to integrate into the national establishment, or else they will not be able to export any oil on their own,” Abdul Mehdi said. In his view, there will come a time when all contracts signed by the Kurdish region and currently declared illegal by Baghdad “will be vetted and some of them rejected if they do not fulfill the conditions defined by the central government, according to a national oil and gas law that ensures the national interest is safeguarded.”

In Baghdad political circles, the draft oil and gas law does not appear to be a priority on any party’s agenda. Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki told Energy Compass last week that the law is not needed for the new long-term service contracts the Iraqi oil ministry intends to sign with international oil companies following the end-June launch of its first licensing round. “No party is willing to pay the price by putting the national coalition on the line for the sake of the oil and gas law,” one influential lawmaker from the prime minister’s Dawaa party said.

Abdul Mehdi blames the inability of Iraqis to reach a consensus over a national law to regulate foreign investments in Iraq’s oil and gas reserves on the lack of a common vision for Iraq as a whole among the different parties or the public, who are all challenged to shed the legacy of the past. “There are divisions within the oil ministry between those who believe Iraq should open up to international oil companies and those who think we are able to develop our oil fields without outside help. There is also an ultrapatriotic view shared by some outside the ministry, which is contrasted with another that sees the interest of Iraq is in opening up to big oil companies in order to benefit from modern technologies.” However, “there is pressure at the moment, even from the public opinion, to stop wasting time, especially as neighboring countries with less potential than Iraq in terms of reserves are raking in benefits at our expense.”

Before the presidency council rejected a bill passed by parliament this week to postpone provincial elections in the disputed oil-rich province of Kirkuk — which was rejected by Kurds — Abdul Mehdi said no solution for Kirkuk can be imposed on any party. “Whatever the solution is, whether integrating Kirkuk into Kurdistan or not, it has to come by consensus.”

The Shiite leader, who almost became prime minister in 2006 but lost by one vote to the Daawa party candidate in an internal Shiite coalition vote, downplays differences with Sunnis and Kurds over the al-Maliki government’s push to agree on a timetable for US troop withdrawal from Iraq. “The Sunnis talk of the objective requirements for a troop withdrawal and the Shiites are proposing a time horizon. There is no contradiction between the two.” He admits that US presidential candidate Barack Obama’s proposal of pulling out of Iraq within 16 months of being elected forced the government to take a position on the timeline. “US troops have a combatant status in Iraq today. We do not have rules of engagement, which means a foreign power is running the country and we have no control over checkpoints or Iraqi detainees. This has to end. US troops have to withdraw from urban areas to agreed facilities by the end of the year once we take control over all provinces. Iraq has to become in charge, and then we can ask for US support as and when it’s needed.”

By Ruba Husari, Baghdad

(Published in Energy Compass July 25, 2008)

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