A power-sharing deal brokered after eight months of protracted negotiations among the winning parties in Iraq’s March legislative elections seems to have led to a situation where the country is led by two executive bodies: the cabinet and the National Council for Strategic Policies (NCSP). In the new era the two state institutions would have executive powers over oil and gas issues, from endorsing oil pipelines deals with neighboring countries, to unitization agreements regarding border fields, to agreeing a long term strategy for the oil sector and of course to finalizing an agreement on the oil and gas law. This, provided of course that the power-sharing deal materializes within the one-month deadline set by the Iraqiya bloc of Iyad Allawi.
According to the political agreements reached, the 20-member body to be chaired by Allawi is expected to include the president, the prime minister, the speaker of parliament, the ministers of foreign affairs, finance, oil, defense and interior as well as the heads of the security establishments and others. It would be legislated by law within the next 30 days and would have its own budget.
The idea of the NCSP was first floated by the US several months ago as American officials tried to broker a deal between the two top winners of the March elections. “It is a formalization of the last five years’ Political Council for National Security which was established in 2005 and had all the major leaders,” is how one US diplomat in Baghdad describes the new body. The difference is that the old council had an advisory role, while the new one is by definition – and very soon by law – is an executive body. “It is a way to get leaders together in the same room, meeting on regular schedule and dealing with tough issues,” the diplomat said.
Just how a government with two heads and with two executives can function practically is difficult to imagine. Eventually, the council of ministers is, from a hierarchy point of view, superior to any other body, since its rights and duties are defined by the constitution, the ultimate law of the country. Furthermore, agreeing on an agenda set by the head of the NCSP does not necessarily mean it will win the automatic endorsement of the prime minister. It would be further difficult to imagine the cabinet giving up its constitutional powers to a newly created body even with the consensus rule – where a consensus vote is required for high policy decisions to become binding and an 80% vote required for lesser high policy decisions – being respected.
But the most awkward result of the power sharing deal is that an NCSP permanent law is going to be legislated to deal with an exceptional situation that will not necessarily be a permanent one.